Busic seeks first Democratic county commission win since 2000; the numbers favor Cox
Rebecca Busic would need more than three of every four unaffiliated votes to beat Republican Rodney Cox, a Cortez Current analysis of Tuesday morning's ballot returns and past results finds. Ballots are due by 7 p.m.
The last time Montezuma County voters put a Democrat on the Board of County Commissioners was 2000, when Kelly Wilson won a second term, according to the Four Corners Free Press. No Democrat has won a seat on the board since.
Democrat Rebecca Busic is trying to change that today against Republican Rodney Cox. They are running for the District 1 seat Commissioner Jim Candelaria is leaving because of term limits. The winner joins Republicans Kent Lindsay and Gerald Koppenhafer on the three-member board.
A Cortez Current analysis of ballots returned as of 9 a.m. today, and of how county voters split in recent races, projects Cox winning with about 55 percent of the vote to Busic’s 45 percent. To win, Busic would need more than three of every four unaffiliated voters who mark the race. In the 2022 midterm, Democrats running statewide won an estimated 61 to 65 percent of them here.
The analysis is not a poll, and no public poll of this race has been released. How it was done is explained below.
All three commissioners are elected by voters across the whole county, though each represents one of three districts. The term is four years.
The candidates
Cox is a fifth-generation county resident whose family has run small businesses here for 28 years, he told KSJD in March. He has made fiscal responsibility his main theme. He won the June 30 Republican primary with about 55 percent of the vote over Bonnie Anderson and Diane Fox-Spratlen, according to KSJD.
Busic is a community organizer who has lived in the county for 22 years. She was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Her campaign lists the economy, housing and child care as its priorities.
At a Sept. 23 forum in Dolores, the two split on child care. Cox said county money should not pay for it and favored cutting regulation so private providers can meet demand. Busic called child care infrastructure and proposed bonuses for providers. Busic wants an immediate moratorium on data centers; Cox has said he would fight any that draw on local water. Both support a 1 percent county sales tax, which is not on this year’s ballot.
On the Valley Range Energy Park east of Cortez, Busic has come out in support. Cox, who said in September he was “against everything” about the project, now says he won’t take a position until the application is made public.
A long wait for Democrats
Wilson was elected in 1996 and re-elected in 2000, the Free Press reported in 2012. When Wilson’s second term ended in 2004, Republicans won both open seats: Wilson’s and the one Lindsay was leaving, also because of term limits. Lindsay returned to the board in 2020.
The closest a Democrat has come since was 2018. M.B. McAfee lost the District 1 race to Candelaria by 393 votes, 4,754 to 4,361, or 40.8 percent to 37.4 percent, the Free Press reported. Two unaffiliated candidates, Steve Chappell Jr. and Jesse James Sattley, drew 2,543 votes between them.
No Democrat was on the November ballot for commissioner in 2020, 2022 or 2024. Busic is the party’s first nominee for the board since McAfee, and the county’s sample ballot lists only her and Cox in the race.
How the projection works
As of 9 a.m. today, the county had received 9,025 ballots, 45 percent of the 19,930 active voters on the rolls Oct. 1, according to the Colorado Secretary of State. Republicans had returned 3,640, unaffiliated voters 3,567, Democrats 1,695 and minor-party voters 123.
Democrats have returned ballots at the highest rate: 58 percent of active Democrats, against 51 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of unaffiliated voters. Republicans still outnumber Democrats more than 2 to 1 among ballots in.
This year’s ballots lean less Republican than 2022’s did at the same point. In the reports issued the day before Election Day, Republicans cast 39.5 percent of ballots this year, down from 43.2 percent in 2022. The unaffiliated share rose from 35.5 percent to 39.4 percent.
The Current assumed 95 percent of Democrats vote for Busic and 95 percent of Republicans for Cox. Minor-party voters, about 1 percent of ballots, were assumed to give Busic 30 percent of their votes. That leaves the race to unaffiliated voters.
To estimate how they lean, the Current applied the same assumptions to 2022, when county voters chose between a Democrat and a Republican for governor, U.S. Senate and Congress. In the county, Democrats drew 43.4 percent of the two-party vote for governor (Jared Polis), 42.7 percent for the 3rd Congressional District (Adam Frisch) and 42.2 percent for U.S. Senate (Michael Bennet). Given who cast ballots that year, those results mean Democrats won about 61 to 65 percent of unaffiliated voters.
Statewide races are a fair yardstick for this one. In 2018, McAfee drew 4,361 votes for commissioner, close to the 4,403 Polis drew in the county for governor on the same ballot.
The Current then estimated about 13,000 ballots in all, near 2022’s turnout, with the ballots still to come split by party the way 2022’s late ballots were. Those ran slightly more Republican than the early ones. At 2022’s unaffiliated split, Busic finishes with 43 to 45 percent. She reaches a majority only by winning about 78 percent of unaffiliated voters, or 75 percent counting only the ballots already in.
| Busic’s share of unaffiliated voters | Busic | Cox | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 38.9% | 61.1% | Even split |
| 60% | 42.8% | 57.2% | About 2022 Democrats’ low end |
| 65% | 44.7% | 55.3% | About 2022 Democrats’ high end |
| 70% | 46.7% | 53.3% | |
| 75% | 48.6% | 51.4% | |
| 80% | 50.6% | 49.4% | Busic wins |
Source: Cortez Current estimate from Colorado Secretary of State ballot-return reports and official 2022 results. Assumes about 13,000 ballots and 95 percent party loyalty.
The projection could miss. It treats unaffiliated voters as if they will split the way they did in 2022. That midterm came under a Democratic president and this one comes under a Republican, and the national mood can move unaffiliated voters. A local race also turns on the candidates themselves and on issues such as Valley Range that statewide results don’t capture. Some voters skip down-ballot races. Changing the loyalty assumption to 93 or 97 percent moves Busic’s projected share by less than half a point.
When results come in
Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. today, and polling centers are open until then, according to the county’s election page. After polls close, counties upload unofficial results to the state’s Election Night Reporting site, linked from GoVoteColorado.gov and the Secretary of State’s home page. Ballots processed before Election Day will likely be reported first, the state says. Results stay unofficial until the county canvass is done.
The Cortez Current will report the results tonight.